Cody Brown’s

NFL BETTING GUIDE

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HOUSTON TEXANS player in helmet

HOUSTON TEXANS

OVERVIEW

Houston enters 2026 with arguably the best defense in football. They are the fifth favorite to win the Super Bowl at +1600 but there’s probably some value there if CJ Stroud can get back to his best. They made protecting Stroud priority number one after he was battered behind a shaky offensive line last season, overhauling the unit with new starters Cam Robinson and Laken Tomlinson and drafting guard Keylan Rutledge. They also brought in David Montgomery from Detroit to lead a run-heavy backfield alongside Woody Marks. Last season, Houston's league-best defense carried the team, with Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr, and Will Anderson Jr forming an elite core, but Stroud's struggles boiled over in a rough playoff exit. If the improved line gives him time, Stroud could recapture his rookie-year form, and Nico Collins looks poised for another big season if he stays healthy. Tank Dell's return from a serious leg injury adds intrigue to the receiving corps.

Head Coach

DEMECO RYANS

Offensive Coordinator

NICK CALEY

Defensive Coordinator

MATT BURKE

OFF SEASON CHANGES

The clear focus for the Texans was to improve the offensive line around CJ Stroud. He got absolutely battered by defenses last season and had just 2.69 seconds to throw per dropback on average. The Texans traded away longtime left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington and brought in Cam Robinson and Laken Tomlinson as new starters. They also traded up two spots in the draft to take Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge at pick 26. Running back David Montgomery arrives from Detroit to lead the backfield. The Texans have made it clear they want to run the ball and he’ll be a nice addition.

QUATERBACKS

The Texans are doing everything they can to help CJ Stroud recapture his rookie form. The offensive line has been a big problem for the last couple of years, with Stroud taking 38, 52 and 23 sacks in his first three seasons. The 23 sacks he took last season were actually the equal fewest in the league, but we could see Stroud was just trying to get the ball out as quick as possible. We saw Stroud’s issues come to a head in the postseason, where he threw five interceptions and lost five fumbles in just two games. The Texans have bolstered the offensive line and added a really good veteran RB in David Montgomery to help Stroud get his confidence back. Davis Mills will continue to be the backup and he’s entering his sixth season with the team. He’s a serviceable option but doesn’t have the ceiling that we know Stroud has.

RUNNING BACKS

The Texans had a very average run game last season and they sorely missed Joe Mixon who missed the year through injury. Mixon has now been released and the Texans signed David Montgomery who has been a great player for the Lions over the past three years. Monty had 700+ rushing yards and 8+ rushing touchdowns in all three seasons with the Lions and he’s still got plenty left in the tank at 29 years old. The Texans have made it clear they want to lean on the run and Montgomery is a bulldozing player who suits them well. He’ll form a partnership with Woody Marks who had 703 rushing yards in his first NFL season, but wasn’t efficient at just 3.6 yards per carry. Marks did have a strong playoff game against the Steelers with 112 yards and a touchdown from 19 touches. However, he backed it up the week after against the Patriots with 17 yards from 14 carried (1.2 YPC).

RECEIVERS

This is a relatively strong receiving corps led by Nico Collins. At his best, he’s a top-10 receiver in the NFL and he now has three consecutive seasons with 1000+ receiving yards. He played a little banged up last year and CJ Stroud just didn’t have the time to hit him on many downfield shots either. If the offensive line and Stroud can improve this year, Nico is set for a big season. The fact that his receiving line is set at 1050.5 shows the books agree. Jayden Higgins being out for the season is a tough blow after some promising signs in his rookie season, ending with 525 yards and 6 touchdowns. They traded for Kayshoun Boutte from the Patriots to replace Higgins. Boutte had a pretty good season in NE last year, going for 551 yards and 6 TDs. The interesting one is Tank Dell, who missed the whole 2025 season rehabbing a gruesome leg injury. Dell is back running routes and if he can get close to fully healthy, he’ll be a bit of a wildcard for this receiving corps.

DEFENCE

This is a Super Bowl caliber unit that finished first in the league in total defense last year. Derek Stingley Jr and Will Anderson Jr are All-Pro talents and are perfect building blocks for the rest of the defense. Danielle Hunter is another elite player at defensive end who finished third in total sacks last season with 15. He’s still playing great football at age 31 and I expect similar production in 2026. It’s a unit that has remained largely intact and opposition QBs won’t enjoy the prospect of facing them again.

PREDICTIONS

10-7

I have the Texans as a playoff team, mostly based off their defense. It’s an elite unit that is hard to score against. This record could definitely improve if CJ Stroud recaptures his rookie season form. It’s not an easy division with the Jags, Colts and Titans all capable of beating eachother.

HOUSTON TEXANS star player in uniform

FAVORITE FUTURE

DAVID MONTGOMERY OVER 7.5 RUSHING TDS

Monty will come in and I believe lead the backfield. He’s still got plenty in the tank and is a great goal line back, scoring 8, 12 and 13 rushing TDs in the last 3 years. Woody Marks in comparison scored just 2 rushing TDs last year. Monty is the much more reliable option for the Texans.

Fanduel Lines

Win Total
9.5
Make Playoffs
-190
Miss Playoffs
+160
Win Superbowl
+1600
Win Conference
+1200
Win Division
+110

SCHEDULE

BUF

WK 1 Home

Difficult

CLE

WK 10 Away

Easy

CIN

WK 2 Home

Moderate

IND

WK 11 Home

Easy

IND

WK 3 Away

Easy

BAL

WK 12 Home

Difficult

DAL

WK 4 Home

Moderate

PIT

WK 13 Away

Easy

TEN

WK 5 Away

Easy

WAS

WK 14 Away

Easy

JAX

WK 6 Away

Moderate

JAX

WK 15 Home

Moderate

NYG

WK 7 Home

Easy

PHI

WK 16 Away

Difficult

NO GAME

WK 8

GB

WK 17 Away

Difficult

LAC

WK 9 Away

Difficult

TEN

WK 18 Home

Easy

BUF

WK 1 Home

Difficult

NYG

WK 7 Home

Easy

PIT

WK 13 Away

Easy

CIN

WK 2 Home

Moderate

NO GAME

WK 8

WAS

WK 14 Away

Easy

IND

WK 3 Away

Easy

LAC

WK 9 Away

Difficult

JAX

WK 15 Home

Moderate

DAL

WK 4 Home

Moderate

CLE

WK 10 Away

Easy

PHI

WK 16 Away

Difficult

TEN

WK 5 Away

Easy

IND

WK 11 Home

Easy

GB

WK 17 Away

Difficult

JAX

WK 6 Away

Moderate

BAL

WK 12 Home

Difficult

TEN

WK 18 Home

Easy

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