MINNESOTA VIKINGS

OFF SEASON CHANGES

Kyler Murray arrives to disrupt the J.J. McCarthy era, even as the Vikings publicly frame it as a competition. I am almost certain Murray will start Week 1 and I think Kevin O’Connell will bring him back to solid production. It’ll be interesting to see if Murray runs the ball more now that he’s another year removed from his knee injury. Minnesota's defense ranked third in yards allowed per play and first in pressure rate last year, but real questions remain after trading Jonathan Greenard and cutting two defensive tackles this offseason.

QUATERBACKS

JJ McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer ranked 45th, 30th, and 57th in EPA per play among 57 quarterbacks with 50-plus dropbacks last year — even a down Murray year in Arizona ranked 25th from that same group. If Murray starts, which I expect him to do, he should be a clear upgrade on all three guys from last season. We know Kevin O’Connell has great success with his quarterbacks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kyler thrive with a change of scenery. Kyler is currently -2500 to be the starting QB and he’s +600 for comeback player of the year which could be worth a nibble. I’m looking forward to seeing him use his legs more now that he’s another year removed from the ACL injury he suffered in 2022.

RUNNING BACKS

This unit is a little bit of a worry for me heading into the 2026 season. Aaron Jones is obviously an amazing player but is now well past his prime, dealing with injuries the past few seasons as well. He’s going into his tenth NFL season and it’s hard to see him gaining much explosiveness back. Jordan Mason is a solid RB2 and put up 758 yards and 6 touchdowns last season, but a lot of that production came when Jones was out. Mason did average a healthy 4.8 yards per carry but on the eye test, Jones looked the better back when he was out there. The Vikings did draft Demond Claiborne with pick 198 in the draft and I’m sure he’ll get some opportunities this season, especially if Jones or Mason get injured.

RECEIVERS

Justin Jefferson posted the quietest season of his career in 2025, just 61.6 yards per game and two touchdowns, playing behind three quarterbacks who combined to rank at or near the bottom of the league in EPA per play. Minnesota was 32nd in third-down conversion rate (31.8%) last season, and the front office added a reliable third-down option in Jauan Jennings, who ranked 21st in third-down target rate among qualified receivers a year ago. If Murray provides even average distribution, expect Jefferson's numbers to snap back toward his career norms in a hurry, and Jennings should immediately help stabilize the down-to-down passing game on crucial third-down snaps that sank this offense's efficiency last season more than almost any other single factor.

DEFENCE

Brian Flores' defense led the NFL in blitz rate at 48% in 2025 and finished third in DVOA, an incredible feat given constant personnel turnover. This year's unit looks considerably different after trading Jonathan Greenard to Philadelphia and cutting defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, real subtractions from a top-five group that a fourth-worst-graded draft class didn't fully address.