ATLANTA FALCONS

OFF SEASON CHANGES

Atlanta fired its entire coaching staff and hired Kevin Stefanski as the new head coach after Michael Penix Jr.'s season-ending ACL tear derailed the year in November, and the front office signed Tua Tagovailoa to compete for the starting job rather than simply hand it back to Penix. Penix was 25th and Tagovailoa 27th in EPA per play among 33 qualified quarterbacks last year, with both lefties tied for among the highest turnover-worthy play rates in the league. Kyle Pitts signed a fresh three-year contract extension this off-season after being tagged by the team back in the spring.

QUATERBACKS

Michael Penix Jr. is working back from a season-ending ACL tear and hasn't been cleared for full-contact drills, while Tua Tagovailoa, who was 27th in EPA per play in his final Miami season, arrives to push him for the job. I think Tua will be the starter for the beginning of the season and he should improve the passing game slightly. Even in a poor Dolphins outfit last year, Tua averaged more passing yards than Penix and Cousins when they were playing for the Falcons. That should improve the output for guys like Drake London and Bijan Robinson in the passing game.

RUNNING BACKS

Bijan Robinson is set for a massive season. He just signed a three year extension worth up to $75 million, which is only eclipsed by Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s already coming off a 1478-yard rushing season (4th in the NFL) but now Tyler Allgeier is gone. Allgeier took a lot of Bijan’s goal line touches away – with Allgeier finishing with 8 touchdowns compared to Bijan’s 7. The Falcons have signed former Commander and 49er Brian Robinson to backup Bijan but I don’t think he’s close to the player that Allgeier is. Bijan also added an incredible 820 receiving yards last season and whilst that might not be sustainable, he will definitely be heavily involved again. Whether it’s Penix or Tua throwing to him, both like to dump the ball off.

RECEIVERS

Kyle Pitts signed a three-year extension after being tagged, giving whichever quarterback wins the job a legitimate mismatch weapon at tight end, and Drake London remains the top outside target. London missed four games with a PCL sprain last year but ranked seventh in yards per route run and sixth in target share among qualified receivers when healthy — a real difference-maker whenever he's on the field. The pass-catching options behind London, Pitts, and Robinson leave much to be desired. Opposing coordinators won't lose sleep over Jahan Dotson or Olamide Zaccheaus in expanded roles. A healthy London paired with continued health from Pitts gives Atlanta's eventual starting quarterback a genuinely potent top of the target chart, even with real questions about depth further down the roster.

DEFENCE

Atlanta was an average defense last year: 16th in yards allowed per play and 15th in points allowed per drive, aided by a top-10 mark in turnovers forced that could regress. Kaden Elliss and Arnold Ebiketie, the team's top two players in pass-rush win rate, both left in free agency, real subtractions that rookie James Pearce Jr. and this unit must now find a way to replace this season.